Jessie Buckley Emerges as Strong Favorite to Win Best Actress Oscar for Hamnet

Irish actress Jessie Buckley is poised to make history as the potential first Irish winner of the Best Actress Oscar, with experts considering her victory nearly assured ahead of the 2026 Academy Awards. Recognized for her powerful portrayal of Agnes in Chloé Zhao’s film Hamnet—an adaptation of Maggie O’Farrell’s novel focusing on the grief of William Shakespeare’s wife after their son Hamnet’s death—Buckley has dominated the awards season. She swept major precursors, including the Critics Choice, Golden Globe, BAFTA, and Actor Awards (SAG), becoming the only acting nominee to win all four this year, alongside smaller honors. Prediction sites like Gold Derby give her a 97% chance of winning. The article traces her journey from a teenage runner-up on the 2008 BBC reality show I’d Do Anything to breakout roles in Beast, Wild Rose, Chernobyl, The Lost Daughter (for which she earned a prior Oscar nomination), Women Talking, and Judy. It also highlights her stage work, including a West End Cabaret revival, and her Mercury Prize-nominated music collaboration. Former teachers and colleagues describe her as possessing rare star quality and dedication, with castmates moved by her immersive performance on Hamnet. Irish stars like Cillian Murphy and Dermot Kennedy express support, and her recent motherhood adds a personal layer to her acceptance speeches. The piece underscores an unpredictable Oscars year where Buckley’s win stands out as the clearest outcome.